A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
